6.7. EU Climate Change Strategy
The ‘EU strategy on adaptation to climate change’ was adopted in 2013. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it aims to enhance the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change (1).
According to a report of the European Environment Agency (2017), past and projected impacts of climate change in European coastal zones and regional seas are:
- Sea-level rise: Mean and extreme sea level have increased globally and along most coasts in Europe. The global mean sea level rise in the 21st century is very likely to be greater than that of the 20th century. Several recent model-based studies and expert assessments have suggested an upper bound for the global mean sea level rise in the 21st century in the range of 1.5–2.0 m. Projected sea level rise, possible changes in the frequency and intensity of storm surges, and the resulting coastal erosion are expected to cause significant ecological damage, economic loss and other societal problems along low-lying coastal areas across Europe unless additional adaptation measures are implemented.
- Ocean acidity: Ocean surface pH has declined from 8.2 to below 8.1 over the industrial era as a result of the increase in atmospheric CO2 This decline corresponds to an increase in oceanic acidity of about 30 %. Ocean surface pH is projected to decrease to values between 8.05 and 7.75 by the end of 21st century, depending on future CO2 emissions levels. The largest projected decline represents more than a doubling in acidity. Ocean acidification is affecting marine organisms and this could alter marine ecosystems.
- Surface temperatures: All European seas have warmed considerably since 1870, and the warming has been particularly rapid since the late 1970s. The multi-decadal rate of sea surface temperature rise during the satellite era (since 1979) has been between 0.21 °C per decade in the North Atlantic and 0.40 °C per decade in the Baltic Sea. Globally averaged sea surface temperature is projected to increase continually, although more slowly than atmospheric temperature.
- Ocean oxygen content: Dissolved oxygen in sea water affects the metabolism of species. Therefore, reductions in oxygen content (i.e. hypoxic or anoxic areas) can lead to changes in the distribution of species, including so called 'dead zones'. The number of 'dead zones' has roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s and has increased from about 20 in the 1950s to about 400 in the 2000s. Oxygen-depleted zones in the Baltic Sea have increased more than 10-fold, from 5 000 to 60 000 km2, since 1900. The Baltic Sea now has the largest dead zone in the world. Oxygen depletion has also been observed in other European seas in recent decades. The primary cause of oxygen depletion is nutrient input from agricultural fertilisers, causing eutrophication. The effects of eutrophication are exacerbated by climate change, in particular increases in sea temperature and in water-column stratification.
Consequences of climate change are e.g. northward expansion of fish and plankton species, increasing risk for fish stocks or changes in phytoplankton communities.
Water-borne diseases are affected by climate change and have strong impacts on society. Examples are the number of vibriosis infections, which can be life-threatening, has increased substantially in Baltic Sea states since 1980. This increase has been linked to observed increases in sea surface temperature, which has improved environmental conditions for Vibrio species blooms in marine waters. The unprecedented number of vibriosis infections in 2014 has been attributed to the unprecedented 2014 heat wave in the Baltic region. Increased temperatures could increase the risk of salmonellosis and the risk of campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis could increase in those regions where precipitation or extreme flooding is projected to increase.