The third step in the Systems Approach Framework (SAF) is the System Formulation (1).

During this step, we formulate and test the individual Ecological, Social and Economic (ESE) components of the scenario simulation model (sub-models), test model sensitivity, validate the model components, merge them into an integrated ESE model and run scenario simulations.

Here, we work to organize available data and information to empirically represent the system functioning (state and processes) in order to be able to simulate consequences of different management options.

We formulate the individual model components, the environmental, social/cultural and economic model blocks based on input data as well as output data from auxiliary models. This includes identification of all state variables (response variables) and all drivers (explanatory variables, co-variates) needed to simulate the processes relevant to each model component. Also, we identify and formulate the linkages between the ESE model components and merge them into the ESE model.

If independent data are available, we test and validate the individual ESE sub-model components, as well as the integrated ESE model. Finally, we run simulations of the potential scenarios chosen by the stakeholders and prepare the output for stakeholder deliberation in the next step, System Assessment.

By the end of the system formulation step you have a complete ESE model (i.e. a bio-economical model) with which you can simulate the various scenarios chosen collaboratively by managers and stakeholders.

During this step, consultations with managers and stakeholders are vital to gain their acknowledgement and ownership of the model, and thereby trusting the modelling output. All stakeholders involved have gained a better insight to the problem and better awareness of how decisions may affect different parts of the system, different sectors and different stakeholders.

The system formulation step of the SAF consists of a list of actions (figure).

Open the handbook (1) and click on each of the actions.